CMIE ups Indian 02-03 GDP growth forecast to 3.7%
India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 9.2 per cent in the current financial year, according to the Economic Survey 2021-22 tabled in the parliament on Monday. "Advance estimates suggest that the Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2 per cent in 2021-22 after contracting in 2020-21. "This implies that overall economic activity has recovered past the pre-pandemic levels," Economic Survey noted. Almost all indicators show that the economic impact of the "second wave" in Q1 was much smaller than that experienced during the full lockdown phase in 2020-21 even though the health impact was more severe, it said.
Bharat Electronics, Power Grid, NTPC and HDFC Bank were among the other major gainers. However, Infosys, Tata Steel, Eternal and Tech Mahindra were among the laggards.
Fitch Ratings on Monday affirmed India's sovereign rating at 'BBB-', with a stable outlook, saying a strong record of delivering growth and improving fiscal credibility will drive improvements in structural metrics. "India's ratings are supported by its robust growth and solid external finances," Fitch said, as it forecast GDP growth of 6.5 per cent in the fiscal year ending March 2026 (FY26), unchanged from FY25, and well above the 'BBB' median of 2.5 per cent.
"The Monetary Policy Committee recognises that there is monetary policy space for future action. However, given the evolving growth-inflation dynamics, the MPC felt it appropriate to take a pause at this juncture," the RBI said in its fifth bi-monthly monetary policy for this fiscal.
The growth of India's services sector eased in September from the recent high in August, as new business and activity expanded at slower rates, according to a monthly survey released on Monday.
India's GDP growth for the current fiscal is expected to slow down to 4.8 per cent, a UN report has said, warning that the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in significant adverse economic impacts globally. The UN 'Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) 2020: Towards sustainable economies' said that Covid-19 is having far-reaching economic and social consequences for the region, with strong cross-border spillover effects through trade, tourism and financial linkages.
Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate sentiment in the stock market next week, even as investors may remain cautious amid ongoing volatility, according to analysts.
Deloitte on Thursday projected economic growth at 6.5-6.7 per cent for the current fiscal, as tax incentives provided in the Budget are expected to push domestic demand amid an uncertain global trade environment. Deloitte estimated India's GDP growth at 6.3-6.5 per cent for FY25 and said that the economic outlook for FY26 hinges on a delicate balance between evolving trade relations and government efforts to boost domestic consumer demand.
'...a mix of asset classes.' 'Include equities for growth (across market caps), debt for stability and liquidity, gold as a hedge against macro and currency risk, and global assets for geographical and economic diversification.'
'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
Sensex and Nifty post steepest weekly loss in over a year, falling nearly 3 per cent.
Global rating Moody's on Monday affirmed India's long-term local and foreign-currency issuer ratings and the local-currency senior unsecured rating at 'Baa3' with a 'stable' outlook on the back of robust economic growth and sound external position. The rating agency also affirmed India's other short-term local-currency rating at P-3.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday lowered India's growth forecast for FY26 to 6.5 per cent from 6.7 per cent on account of trade uncertainty and higher US tariffs that are expected to impact exports and investment. Despite the downward revision from the April 2025 Asian Development Outlook (ADO), India remains one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world.
India is the second-most-preferred destination among chief executive officers planning international investments - up from the fifth spot last year, according to PwC's 29th Annual Global CEO Survey released on Tuesday. The United States is their first choice.
India needs Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council-like common platforms between states and the Centre in areas such as land clearances, power, and water to fast-track infrastructure projects to achieve double-digit growth going ahead, said Praveer Sinha, chief executive officer and managing director of The Tata Power Company.
CMIE expects the growth rate to climb slowly from around 6 per cent in the first-half to about 8 per cent in the second-half of FY 10.
Budget 2026 sticks to fiscal discipline, shuns populist measures despite five key state elections coming up, but ends up rattling stock markets with a higher transaction tax on derivatives trading.
The core dilemma remains: Why provide further stimulus to an economy that is already booming at an 8 per cent growth rate? asks Rajeswari Sengupta.
India's economy has bounced back amazingly from the Covid-19 pandemic and nationwide lockdown over the last one year, but it is not out of the woods yet, according to the World Bank, which in its latest report has predicted that the country's real GDP growth for fiscal year 21/22 could range from 7.5 to 12.5 per cent.
While the economy will wait for a rate cut in December, the banking industry should be happy with the wave of liberalisation -- a big push for growth in bank credit, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The rupee recovered 55 paise from its all-time low level to close at 90.38 against the US dollar after a volatile trade on Wednesday, amid suspected aggressive central bank intervention.
The exchange rate of the rupee against the dollar may delay the economy's rise to become the fourth-largest.
While India's GDP growth slowed to five-year low of 5.8% in Q4, China grew at 6.4%.
Unless supported by investment, any spark of a recovery could be temporary, hint economists.
The more things change, the more they remain the same for corporate India. In the April-June 2025 period (Q1FY26) - for the ninth consecutive quarter - listed companies witnessed only single-digit revenue growth, while their core earnings, excluding other income and one-time gains, contracted for the second time in four quarters. This comes as firms brace for the impact of 50 per cent US tariff on Indian goods.
Under the new methodology, the base year has been changed from 2004-05 to 2011-12 and also in conformity with the international practice, the GDP is now measured at market prices.
India's economic growth accelerated to 8.4 per cent in the third quarter of 2023-24, mainly due to good performance by the manufacturing, mining & quarrying and construction sectors. The Indian economy recorded a growth of 8.4 per cent in the third quarter of this fiscal (October-December 2023), according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Thursday.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Ethiopia on a bilateral visit, engaging with Ethiopian leadership to strengthen partnerships in various sectors. He was warmly welcomed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali and participated in cultural events, highlighting the strong ties between the two nations.
Asia takes the lead, boasting four Indian cities on the list, according to the 2024 Savills Growth Hubs Index.
India's GDP growth is likely to moderate from 8.2 per cent in 2023 to 7 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025 because the pent-up demand accumulated during Covid has exhausted, as the economy reconnects with its potential, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday. About the global economy, the IMF said the battle against inflation has largely been won, even though price pressures persist in some countries.
'I don't see how a company like OpenAI can honestly expect to generate revenue significant enough to maintain its spending habits via John and Jane Q. Public,' points out Sree Sreenivasan.
Continuing population growth and development of a modern economy propelled by advanced technology is likely to push India's GDP past that of China by the middle of the century, according to economist Paul Erdman.
Advance estimates of national income growth released today by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) project it at 7.2 per cent in 2009-10, pegging it a notch below earlier forecasts of the Reserve Bank of India (7.5 per cent) and finance ministry (7.75 per cent). With economic growth back on track the government may initiate a phased withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus package.
Using the debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor aligns with efforts to promote fiscal transparency through proper disclosure of off-budget borrowings.
India's services sector growth moderated in December, as the rates of expansion in incoming new work and output eased to the slowest in 11 months, and companies refrained from recruiting additional staff, a monthly survey said on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index fell from 59.8 in November to 58.0 in December, indicating the slowest rate of expansion since January.
'This Budget has a one-year agenda, which you can call the sprint, and the marathon is towards Viksit Bharat.'
'Global uncertainty is something which definitely occupies the minds of officials when we are preparing for the Budget.'
Stock market sentiment is likely to remain optimistic going ahead, though some consolidation cannot be ruled out after the recent sharp rally in the benchmarks, analysts said. According to experts, the Nifty and Sensex could indeed move towards new record highs before the end of the year, if global cues stay supportive, crude oil prices remain benign and there is continued domestic earnings momentum.
'The current economic contraction is certainly due to the lockdowns as a response to the pandemic, which is an act of God.' 'Nobody has seen such a thing in the last 100 years.' 'Saying that this was an act of mismanagement is largely incorrect'
